Forecasting future demand for in-patient mental health beds
LOCATION: BIRMINGHAM & SOLIHULL | PROJECT AREA: STRATEGIC ADVICE | PROJECT STATUS: COMPLETED
Birmingham & Solihull Mental Health Foundation Trust wanted to establish projected future demand for adult acute and psychiatric intensive care mental health services across the region. They asked us to undertake activity and capacity modelling to inform their long-term service planning.
The challenge
The Trust needed to determine a baseline of their current mental health inpatient bed use, and then forecast for the future, based around population projections and potential utilisation levels.
We modelled three scenarios, all with different target reductions for length of stay and admissions, based on increases in activity being phased in from 2027.
The Solution
Our modelling included adult acute mental health in-patients and psychiatric intensive care units (PICUs), which provide higher-acuity support.
The report also took into account:
- Out-of-area placements
- Population projections
- Different gendered wards
- Preferred models for bed numbers per ward
Although it would first appear that 100% utilisation would be the perfect objective to aim for, this is actually not ideal as it leaves no flexibility for exceptionally busy periods. We instead modelled bed use at both 85% and 95%, to ensure there is capacity to maintain flow through the service and manage peaks in demand, whilst maintaining operational efficiency and providing the best use of resources.
The result
The result was a report that projected bed demand to 2036 across three distinct scenarios, tested against various specialties.
This enables the Trust to make decisions about redevelopment of their in-patient estate, and highlights the potential impact of new care models, supports planning for future capacity needs, and underpins a transition towards reducing acute admissions, improved community provision and long-term sustainability.
Helping people get better
Interested in mental health projects? Check out our work as strategic estates partner to a mental health trust.
